Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-07-06

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-06-25) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-06-25 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-25 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-25 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-25 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-25 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-25)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-25) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 301 (260 – 336) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -93 (42 – -22)
Albania 72 (57 – 89) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 59 (12 – -21)
Algeria 374 (326 – 422) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.6 (7.2 – 14)
Andorra 5 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.4 (0 – 2.8) 3.1 (1 – -2.8)
Argentina 2473 (2319 – 2615) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (27 – 120)
Armenia 540 (481 – 600) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -54 (140 – -22)
Australia 106 (85 – 125) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.7) 6.7 (4.7 – 12)
Austria 95 (73 – 114) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 8.7 (5.6 – 20)
Azerbaijan 587 (531 – 653) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 43 (21 – -1500)
Bahrain 549 (495 – 602) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 130 (32 – -60)
Bangladesh 3860 (3617 – 4118) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 53 (35 – 110)
Belarus 333 (293 – 368) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (-69 – -12)
Belgium 101 (83 – 121) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 15 (7.9 – 150)
Benin 53 (36 – 68) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 84 (11 – -15)
Bolivia 1143 (1018 – 1253) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 34 (20 – 94)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 135 (113 – 155) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (10 – -340)
Brazil 40845 (37758 – 44027) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 33 (28 – 40)
Bulgaria 154 (129 – 174) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 22 (11 – 56000)
Cameroon 5 (0 – 10) Decreasing 0.1 (0 – 0.2) -2 (-2.7 – -1.6)
Canada 333 (287 – 368) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 53 (19 – -69)
Cape Verde 50 (35 – 63) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 15 (6.6 – -49)
Central African Republic 82 (65 – 98) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -48 (26 – -13)
Chad 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.8) 5.6 (1.5 – -3.3)
Chile 3687 (3454 – 3876) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -42 (-91 – -28)
China 19 (11 – 26) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -17 (15 – -5.5)
Colombia 3814 (3548 – 4125) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 27 (21 – 36)
Congo 54 (39 – 67) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 15 (6.4 – -49)
Costa Rica 237 (207 – 265) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.8 – 22)
Cote dIvoire 270 (236 – 300) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.2) 70 (19 – -44)
Croatia 71 (52 – 85) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 16 (7.4 – -130)
Cuba 8 (1 – 13) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 7 (2.5 – -9.2)
Czechia 172 (144 – 193) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 18 (9.4 – 160)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 104 (83 – 120) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (180 – -10)
Denmark 24 (15 – 32) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -11 (46 – -5.1)
Djibouti 17 (7 – 24) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 15 (4.5 – -11)
Dominican Republic 843 (753 – 931) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (15 – 46)
Ecuador 1048 (933 – 1170) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 12 (9.6 – 16)
Egypt 1532 (1420 – 1649) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 59 (32 – 440)
El Salvador 247 (218 – 272) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (12 – 240)
Equatorial Guinea 161 (114 – 200) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 7.3 (4.4 – 22)
Estonia 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3) 4.7 (1.5 – -3.9)
Ethiopia 165 (140 – 188) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (28 – -19)
Finland 12 (4 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 17 (4 – -7.6)
France 612 (555 – 665) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (12 – 33)
Gabon 69 (53 – 83) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -14 (-79 – -7.2)
Germany 433 (389 – 479) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -36 (-5000 – -18)
Ghana 447 (400 – 493) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (18 – 2900)
Greece 24 (14 – 33) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 14 (5 – -19)
Guatemala 899 (776 – 1023) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.6 – 15)
Guinea 42 (30 – 54) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -36 (16 – -8.8)
Guinea Bissau 26 (16 – 35) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.9 (3.7 – 57)
Haiti 78 (58 – 92) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -30 (34 – -11)
Honduras 887 (797 – 957) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (16 – 41)
Hungary 9 (2 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 13 (3.5 – -7.2)
Iceland 6 (1 – 10) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.4) 6.5 (2.2 – -7.1)
India 21657 (19996 – 23374) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (19 – 24)
Indonesia 1415 (1288 – 1535) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (17 – 35)
Iran 2669 (2484 – 2885) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 58 (34 – 180)
Iraq 2279 (2095 – 2460) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 40 (27 – 83)
Ireland 13 (6 – 18) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 15 (4.3 – -9.8)
Israel 858 (749 – 958) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.6 (7.2 – 11)
Italy 200 (170 – 230) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -31 (140 – -14)
Japan 168 (134 – 194) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.4 (5.9 – 15)
Kazakhstan 3691 (3342 – 4013) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.8) 5.4 (4.3 – 7.4)
Kenya 257 (228 – 284) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 20 (12 – 81)
Kosovo 92 (72 – 109) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 31 (11 – -36)
Kuwait 762 (684 – 832) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 58 (26 – -230)
Kyrgyzstan 378 (342 – 412) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (9.9 – 28)
Latvia 6 (0 – 13) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.1) 3.5 (1.4 – -7.2)
Lebanon 22 (13 – 31) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -140 (8.9 – -7.9)
Libya 39 (26 – 49) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (7.1 – -20)
Lithuania 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.2) 7.8 (2.3 – -5.2)
Luxembourg 42 (26 – 53) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 8 (4.3 – 48)
Madagascar 106 (85 – 124) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (8.1 – 130)
Malawi 78 (59 – 92) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 22 (8.9 – -48)
Malaysia 8 (1 – 12) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -55 (5 – -4.2)
Maldives 21 (11 – 28) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 41 (6.5 – -9.5)
Mali 33 (20 – 43) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 20 (6.5 – -19)
Mauritania 141 (118 – 161) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -31 (62 – -12)
Mexico 5959 (5343 – 6490) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 37 (25 – 80)
Moldova 258 (221 – 290) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -54 (62 – -19)
Mongolia 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.7) 6.1 (1.9 – -5.2)
Morocco 300 (256 – 343) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 77 (20 – -44)
Namibia 37 (24 – 48) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 8 (4.3 – 68)
Nepal 513 (461 – 566) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 92 (26 – -60)
Netherlands 65 (48 – 78) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -39 (24 – -11)
New Zealand 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.6) 9.5 (1.9 – -3.3)
Niger 6 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 110 (3.4 – -3.7)
Nigeria 639 (579 – 695) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 59 (25 – -190)
North Macedonia 145 (124 – 166) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 110 (18 – -27)
Norway 19 (9 – 26) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 45 (6 – -8.4)
Oman 1218 (1100 – 1326) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 83 (32 – -140)
Pakistan 3867 (3583 – 4141) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 170 (44 – -89)
Palestine 318 (285 – 352) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.5 – 17)
Panama 934 (865 – 1023) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 33 (20 – 83)
Paraguay 69 (51 – 86) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -42 (18 – -9.9)
Peru 3534 (3287 – 3783) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 110 (51 – -590)
Philippines 1048 (925 – 1153) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (14 – 30)
Poland 311 (269 – 351) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 57 (20 – -59)
Portugal 358 (316 – 400) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 65 (22 – -68)
Puerto Rico 101 (78 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -570 (18 – -17)
Qatar 987 (881 – 1073) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 590 (45 – -51)
Romania 391 (345 – 439) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (15 – 110)
Russia 7075 (6631 – 7555) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 360 (76 – -130)
Rwanda 32 (20 – 43) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 51 (7.8 – -11)
Saudi Arabia 4114 (3844 – 4422) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 32 (24 – 48)
Senegal 116 (96 – 134) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 58 (14 – -30)
Serbia 299 (263 – 342) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.9 (6.6 – 14)
Sierra Leone 22 (11 – 31) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 18 (5.3 – -13)
Singapore 219 (187 – 245) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 38 (16 – -80)
Slovakia 17 (9 – 24) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 13 (4.4 – -13)
Somalia 13 (6 – 19) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -16 (9.5 – -4.3)
South Africa 8435 (7608 – 9230) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 16)
South Korea 58 (42 – 71) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 18 (7.6 – -55)
South Sudan 15 (8 – 22) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -33 (8.6 – -5.7)
Spain 341 (304 – 379) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 120 (25 – -44)
Sri Lanka 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) -42 (6.2 – -4.6)
Sudan 79 (59 – 92) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -16 (270 – -8)
Suriname 24 (13 – 34) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 29 (6.5 – -12)
Sweden 919 (840 – 989) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -21 (-42 – -14)
Switzerland 97 (76 – 117) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.4 (4.9 – 15)
Tajikistan 54 (40 – 67) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -120 (15 – -12)
Thailand 7 (1 – 11) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.9 (2.3 – -7)
Tunisia 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.1) 7.8 (2.2 – -5)
Turkey 1325 (1223 – 1418) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 160 (46 – -110)
Uganda 14 (6 – 20) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 69 (5.9 – -7.2)
Ukraine 870 (792 – 931) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 190 (42 – -72)
United Arab Emirates 518 (448 – 577) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 22 (14 – 53)
United Kingdom 690 (634 – 746) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -18 (-30 – -13)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (3 – 15) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.9 (26 – -3.8)
United States of America 49716 (46195 – 53896) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (16 – 20)
Uzbekistan 295 (264 – 326) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (14 – 310)
Venezuela 239 (210 – 264) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (14 – -140)
Western Sahara 62 (46 – 76) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 2.8 (1.4 – 180)
Yemen 26 (15 – 36) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 220 (8.2 – -8.8)
Zambia 23 (13 – 30) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 10 (4.4 – -36)
Zimbabwe 21 (13 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 10 (4.2 – -23)